韦宗友:“特朗普时期的大国关系:美俄、美印与中美”
  发布时间: 2018-03-20   访问次数: 59

韦宗友:“特朗普时期的大国关系:美俄、美印与中美”, 《人民论坛·学术前沿》,2018年第1期

Wei Zongyou, "The Relationship Between Great Powers in the Trump Era: US-Russia, US-India, and China-US,"

Frontiers, No.1, 2018  

摘 特朗普从“美国优先”的外交理念出发,试图通过较大幅度改变中美、中俄乃至中印关系,撬动既有地缘政治格局,以乱触变,更好地服务于美国的国家利益。然而,美国国内政治内斗、国际政治及大国关系的既有逻辑,令特朗普撬动大国关系棋盘的企图基本落空。美俄关系非但未能重启与缓和,反而陷入新一轮对立;中美关系则经受住特朗普冲击波的考验,特别是中国政府沉着应对、积极引导,使得中美关系逐步朝着健康稳定方向发展。美印关系受到较少冲击,且由于印度在特朗普新阿富汗及南亚政策中的重要性,两国关系在“各取所需”的算盘下,继续向前发展。展望未来,美俄关系的“冷淡”状态不会根本改变,中美关系基本上能够确保健康稳定向前发展,美印两国则会进一步加强彼此间的政治、经济与安全关系。   

关键词特朗普 大国关系 中美关系 美俄关系 美印关系

AbstractBased on the "put America first" diplomatic concept, Trump tried to significantly change the Sino-U.S., Sino-Russian and even the Sino-Indian relations to leverage the existing geo-political situation and cause chaos so as to serve the national interests of the US. However, the U.S. domestic political infighting, international politics and the relations between great powers have basically thwarted Trump's attempt. The US-Russian relationship not only failed to resume and ease, but fell into a new round of confrontation. In contrast, the Sino-U.S. relations have withstood the test of the Trump impact. In particular, the Chinese government has been calmly dealing with the situation so that the Sino-U.S. relations are gradually developing in a healthy and stable manner. The U.S.-Indian relations have been less affected, and due to the importance of India in Trump’s new policies on Afghanistan and South Asia, the relationship between the two countries continue to move forward as they can both benefit from it. Looking into the future, the "cold" U.S.-Russian relations will not change fundamentally, the healthy and steady Sino-U.S. relations will basically continue, and the U.S. and India will further strengthen their political, economic and security relations. 

Keywords Trump, Great powers relationship, China-U.S. relations, U.S.-Russian relations, U.S.-Indian relations