祁怀高:“近年来中国在南海的存在格局、面临挑战及因应之策”
  发布时间: 2018-03-12   访问次数: 12

祁怀高:“近年来中国在南海的存在格局、面临挑战及因应之策”,《国际论坛》2018年第1期,第8-13页;Qi Huaigao, “China’s Presence and Challenges in the South China Sea in Recent Years and China’s SCS Policies in the Future,” International Forum, Vol. 20, No. 1 (January 2018), pp. 8-13.

摘要:2012年中共十八大以来,中国在南海的存在格局朝着总体有利的态势发展,中国掌控南海局势的能力大大加强。南沙岛礁建设彰显了中国在南海的主权存在;三沙设市强化了在南海的政权存在;发展南部战区海军(南海舰队)增强了在南海的军事存在;实控黄岩岛提高了对中沙群岛海域的管控能力。但与此同时,中国也必须正视美日等域外国家“介入”、“南海仲裁案”结果的不利影响、维权与维稳之间的张力、海洋生态问题等挑战。未来中国的南海举措应包括:先摘取海洋环保和渔业合作的“低垂果实”;积极推进南海油气资源共同开发;推进“南海行为准则”磋商以打造共同认可的地区规则;在某些争议海域优先划界;管控中美在南海的战略博弈以避免军事误判。

Abstract: Since the 18th CPC National Congress in 2012,China’s presence in the South China Sea (SCS) has been developing towards a favorable situation, where the ability of China to control the situation has been strengthened greatly. China’s presence in the SCS includes:the construction on the Nansha islands and reefs demonstrates further China’ssovereignty presence; the establishment of Sansha Municipality strengthens China’s political presence; the navy of theSouthern Theater Command (also known as the South China Sea Fleet) strengthens China’s military presence; thereal control of the Huangyan Dao (Scarborough Shoal) enhances China’s jurisdiction over the Zhongsha Qundao. At the same time, China also faces the involvement of powers outside the region such as the U.S. and Japan, the negative influence of the SCS Arbitration, tension between promoting rights and maintaining stability, and the challengeof marine ecological problems. The possible actions taken by China in the future include the following. First, Chinaand the other SCS coastal states should pick up the low-hanging fruits such as cooperation in maritime environmentalprotection and fisheries. Second, China can actively promote the joint development of oil and gas resources. Third, China needs to work with ASEAN countries for positive and steady progress in the consultations on a Code of Conduct (COC) in the SCS. Fourth, China can take precedence in the delimitation of certain disputed waters. Fifth, China should manage and control the strategic competition with the U.S. in the SCS to avoid military misjudgment.

  

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